Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 11.238492 12.884193 14.660002 16.715255 19.024894 21.536647 24.471346
2025-05-11 8.614820 10.792975 13.329633 16.488415 20.301771 24.741174 30.284120
2025-05-18 7.349039 9.748354 12.681956 16.507320 21.335403 27.195644 34.812605
2025-05-25 6.450916 9.006457 12.269516 16.700956 22.515391 29.832168 39.675631
2025-06-01 5.690201 8.312482 11.790927 16.685296 23.326318 31.945855 43.887041
2025-06-08 5.021040 7.651992 11.267865 16.524620 23.879776 33.698286 47.665300
2025-06-15 4.560523 7.223462 11.002870 16.661474 24.799283 35.937162 52.155742
2025-06-22 4.268241 7.002701 10.998637 17.142487 26.198422 38.871878 57.713238
2025-06-29 3.838320 6.526015 10.571080 16.958361 26.607048 40.411284 61.357985
2025-07-06 3.312340 5.843697 9.771017 16.143987 26.014763 40.455907 62.825776
2025-07-13 3.129503 5.694114 9.774839 16.547867 27.256078 43.211403 68.345477
2025-07-20 2.946320 5.524456 9.728587 16.860205 28.360266 45.797799 73.710170
2025-07-27 2.689893 5.210652 9.431488 16.760938 28.831977 47.478830 77.837519
2025-08-03 2.433412 4.871604 9.064428 16.517770 29.053425 48.778243 81.434252
2025-08-10 2.251037 4.646980 8.870359 16.542201 29.696869 50.747764 86.135317
2025-08-17 2.112848 4.490531 8.780813 16.734270 30.620359 53.193665 91.682193
2025-08-24 1.956794 4.283855 8.583425 16.719254 31.183696 55.069638 96.375847
2025-08-31 1.795410 4.050143 8.316747 16.558053 31.477846 56.504018 100.392772
2025-09-07 1.687943 3.914210 8.220193 16.695236 32.292815 58.828883 105.957835
2025-09-14 1.631035 3.877374 8.308379 17.177092 33.740103 62.274773 113.523537
2025-09-21 1.501108 3.672438 8.053497 16.992642 33.968964 63.636841 117.602024
2025-09-28 1.315643 3.326782 7.491187 16.176788 32.987961 62.846026 117.940355
2025-10-05 1.270384 3.290237 7.551775 16.581403 34.297980 66.129443 125.466922